Gas storage levels and gas prices today: 2026 trend, 2027 outlook
TTF gas, Brent crude, gas storage levels and carbon pricing live. Below the charts: why gas prices are rising in 2026, which scenarios institutions see for 2027, and what that means for commercial gas prices.
Current indicators
Brent crude
Source: Yahoo Finance
TTF gas
Source: Yahoo Finance
EU ETS CO2
Source: Yahoo Finance CO2.L
Gas storage DE
Source: AGSI / GIE
How have oil prices developed?
USD/barrel, annual average 2015 to today
Brent & TTF - monthly average
Brent in USD/barrel, TTF in EUR/MWh (monthly mean)
How full are Germany's gas stores?
Fill level in % across the last three winter seasons, the current one in orange. Source: AGSI / GIE
Gas storage - current fill level
Fill level in % · Source: AGSI / GIE (live)
How fast is the CO₂ budget shrinking?
Remaining emission allowances in Mt CO₂ · Source: European Commission (Fit for 55), PIK 2026
The MSR can further tighten effective supply. From 2034 the trajectory is not yet legally set - von der Leyen proposed an extension in March 2026.
Decarbonise now and you hedge against rising costs - and position yourself for the next round of funding.
- The EUA price fell from ~€90 to ~€60/t in early 2026 - political headwinds only dampen the price signal short-term.
- The ETS cap phases down to zero by around 2039: the CO₂ price (currently 83 €/t) is volatile today yet rising inexorably.
- The IMF puts implicit subsidies for fossil energy at USD 6.7tn (~6 % of world GDP) - a price advantage that melts with every step of carbon pricing.
Sources: IMF, "Underpriced and Overused" (2025); ECB Working Paper 3116 (2025); European Commission (Fit for 55).
Analysis as of 16 September 2026
Why are gas prices rising in 2026?
The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, Europe's benchmark, currently stands at 87.3 EUR/MWh. It has more than doubled since the start of the year: in mid-August it was 130 percent above its January level according to Euronews, and in early September it crossed 80 EUR/MWh for the first time since 2023 according to Bloomberg. For comparison, the 2022 crisis peak was around 350 EUR/MWh.
The trigger is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East conflict. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), almost 20 percent of global LNG supply passed through the strait, mostly from Qatar. That gas is missing in exactly the months when Europe refills its storage for winter, and Asian buyers are bidding for the remaining cargoes.
The second problem is storage. On 1 September, European gas storage was 65 percent full according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the lowest level for that date since records began in 2011. In Germany the fill level currently stands at 60 percent. The Federal Network Agency rates supply as stable but requires at least 30 percent in storage on 1 February 2027. Every cold spell and every maintenance outage in Norway now hits a thinner buffer than in previous years.
Gas price outlook 2027: three scenarios
No serious institution publishes a point forecast. What exists are scenarios. Three readings from the current reports:
Base case: high, but no new shock
The IEA expects the Middle East outages to slow LNG supply growth mainly in 2026 and 2027, leaving markets tighter in both years than previously assumed. In spring, the EU regulator ACER saw forward prices at double their pre-war level until at least mid-2027. In August, Oxford Economics expected an average of just under 60 EUR/MWh for the 2026/27 winter half-year.
Sources: IEA, Gas Market Report Q3 2026; ACER, Gas wholesale markets winter 2025/26 (April 2026); Oxford Economics, cited by Euronews, 20 Aug 2026.
Relief: buffers work, demand falls
In July the European Central Bank analysed why prices rose less than in earlier crises despite the supply shock: an oil surplus of 2.5 million barrels per day, high inventories and weaker Asian demand cushioned the move. If Hormuz reopens and Qatari exports return, forward prices fall quickly. In its base path, the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) sees gas prices below 30 EUR/MWh by 2030 as demand declines.
Sources: ECB blog, 27 Jul 2026; EWI, risk scenarios for gas supply in Germany, January 2025.
Escalation: cold winter, Hormuz stays shut
If Gulf LNG exports normalise only gradually through 2027, Goldman Sachs estimates prices would need to rise above 100 EUR/MWh for Europe to pull enough cargoes away from Asia and get through winter. Before the conflict, EWI had already modelled annual averages above 60 EUR/MWh for an LNG supply loss. A cold winter on low storage would combine both.
Sources: Goldman Sachs, cited by CNBC, 27 Aug 2026; EWI, January 2025.
What this means for commercial gas prices
Exchange prices reach businesses with a lag. Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported a 57 percent month-on-month rise in exchange gas prices for March 2026, while gas in distribution, the price commercial and industrial customers pay, was only 1.6 percent above the previous year in July. Fixed-term contracts and tranche models stretch the effect; they do not remove it. Anyone signing a new contract for 2027 buys at the forward price then in force.
Then there is the carbon price. For 2027 the German government has fixed a corridor of 55 to 65 EUR/t in the national fuel emissions trading scheme; from 2028 the EU's ETS 2 takes over with a market price. At 65 EUR/t that is roughly 1.3 ct per kWh of natural gas, regardless of what the exchange price does.
My position: gas price risk cannot be negotiated away, only planned away. Anyone who knows how many MWh of gas run at which site for which process can calculate what the three scenarios above would cost and set electrification with funding against it. That is exactly the energy cost module of the Carbon Footprint & ROI Analysis.
Sources
- IEA, Gas Market Report Q3 2026
- ACER, Key developments in European gas wholesale markets, winter 2025/26
- European Central Bank, blog “Energy shock: why oil and gas prices have risen less than expected”, 27 Jul 2026
- Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency), current gas supply situation in Germany
- Gas Infrastructure Europe, AGSI+ storage data
- EWI, risk scenarios for gas supply in Germany, January 2025
- Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), producer prices March 2026 and July 2026
- Press, not linked: Euronews (20 Aug 2026), CNBC (27 Aug 2026), Bloomberg (9 Sep 2026)
Frequently asked questions on gas, oil and carbon prices
What is the current CO₂ price in the EU ETS?
The EU ETS CO₂ price (EUA) is the central cost driver for fossil fuels in the EU. It rises structurally through the gradual tightening of allowances and typically ranges between €50 and €100/t CO₂. The dashboard shows the current price in real time.
How full are Germany's gas storage facilities?
German gas storage drains over the winter and is refilled in summer. How low it falls depends on the October level, the weather and LNG supply: in winter 2025/26 the monthly average was around 76 % in October and around 22 % in March according to AGSI, a year earlier 98 and 33 %. A low fill level raises the risk of price spikes. The dashboard above shows the current level and the running season, updated several times a day from AGSI/GIE.
How does the Brent oil price affect companies in Germany?
Brent crude directly raises the cost of diesel, kerosene and petrochemical inputs. Rising barrel prices noticeably increase transport, production and heating costs - especially for logistics-intensive sectors. The dashboard shows the current Brent price in real time.
How are gas prices developing in 2026?
Since the start of 2026 the TTF gas price has more than doubled, and in early September it was above 80 EUR/MWh for the first time since 2023. The drivers are the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocks almost 20 percent of global LNG supply, and the lowest European storage levels since 2011. The dashboard above shows the current price.
What is the gas price outlook for 2027?
Institutions publish scenarios rather than point forecasts. The IEA and ACER expect tight markets and high forward prices until at least mid-2027. In a relief scenario, the oil surplus and falling demand push prices back down. In an escalation scenario with Hormuz closed and a cold winter, analysts see prices above 100 EUR/MWh as necessary to pull enough LNG to Europe.
What do gas prices mean for commercial and industrial users?
Exchange prices arrive with a lag through fixed-term contracts: in March 2026 exchange gas prices rose 57 percent month on month according to Destatis, while gas in distribution was only 1.6 percent above the previous year in July. From 2027 a carbon price of 55 to 65 EUR/t is added, roughly 1.3 ct per kWh. Anyone signing a new contract pays the forward price.
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